I recently received a request to update something I posted last November (click here to view “A Look Back at Lakefront Sales over the Past 6 Years”). It had some interesting stuff on lakefront trends…so here’s the update, John. If there’s anything in particular that I’m leaving out, or if there’s something specific you would like me to add or research let me know.
2008 Lakefront Sales:
Click here to see a google map of all 16 lakefront sales in 2008
Below is a chart which breaks down List Price versus Sales Price and it also shows Days on Market for each sale in 2008. The property on Seminole skews the Days on Market average (it was on the market for 850 days!) and the house on Round Drive skews the average Sales Price (it sold for $2,286,500). One stat that stood out to me was the Sales Price to List Price ratio. Every year has been above 90% except 2008.
2003- 96% (22 sales) avg sales price was $845,068;
2004- 96% (23 sales) avg sales price was $904,208;
2005- 97% (43 sales) avg sales price was $1,213,295;
2006- 92% (34 sales) avg sales price was $1,391,191;
2007- 94% (20 sales) avg sales price was $1,438,973;
2008- 89% (16 sales) avg sales price was $1,307,230;
2009 (so far)- 95% (11 sales) avg sales price so far is $1,304,472.
2008 Lakefront Sales
Number of Homes Sold: 16
Average Days on Market: 188 Days
Average List Price: $1,457,931
Average Sales Price: $1,291,031
Median Sales Price: $1,300,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio: 89%
2009 Lakefront Sales:
2009 has been a unique year in sales along the lake. Out of the 11 sales so far, 8 have been cash sales, and one buyer has bought 3 out of the 11 sales. The house on Willow Landing was negotiated and sold without ever being on the market…so that’s going to skew the numbers as well. It shows being on the market for 0 days and selling for 100% of the list price. So you have to take all the averages with a grain of salt. I think the big question is whether the one buyer has helped artificially inflate the lakefront market to make the numbers look better than they really are? I think it’s too early in the year to answer that question just yet. Typically, the focus shifts to the lake (as opposed to the ski slopes) this time of year….so it will be interesting to see how the numbers end up. This buyer was involved in the three highest sales so far (208 N Eagle for $2,700,000; 42020 Eagles Nest for $1,850,000; and 200 N Eagle for $1,750,000) so if you take those out of the equation, you have 8 closed sales with prices of $1,150,000; $890,000; $730,000; $920,200; $1,575,000; $1,600,000; $685,000; and $499,000.
2009 Lakefront Sales
Number of Homes Sold: 11
Average Days on Market: 183 Days
Average List Price: $1,378,790
Average Sales Price: $1,304,472
Median Sales Price: $1,150,000
Sales Price/List Price Ratio: 95%
In Conclusion
I anticipate roughly 20 lakefront sales for 2009. I think it will be slightly better than 2008. So far there’s 11 closed, 2 short sales which are pending, a bank owned property (over on Cienega) pending, and 1 government lease along the lake pending. So if the short sales go through (which is a coin flip) you’ll have 15. There seems to be several willing and able buyers waiting for the right property to come on the market and are ready to “pull the trigger”. They’re either early in their search and don’t feel comfortable making an offer yet, or the right deal hasn’t come around. Houses like 39473 Lake, 39364 Aurora, 651 Cove Drive, 220 N Eagle, and 40612 Simonds (rumor has it there’s seller financing available at 6%) I see selling within the next 5 months…..these are all higher end lakefronts, but they’re deeper water locations and they’re priced more aggressively than the rest of the pack so I’m sure the buyers will see the value in them. There’s also always a couple sales that don’t make any sense. Sales where you do a double take and say, “THAT SOLD”?! “Why would someone buy that when there’s this…and this”….and if you look at the Notice of Defaults, there are 2 or 3 properties that I’m almost certain will go back to the bank. So 20 might be a conservative number, but I do think it will be better than 2008.
If you are interested in lakefront property in the Big Bear area, give me a call or send me an email. I would love to hear from you and at least give you my opinion on the positives and negatives of each area. I’m here to help.
